As noted on the Weather page, weather is an extremely important driver of landscape fire risk. The measure we use here, Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI), can be calculated directly from climate models. It is important to note that potential future changes in other drivers of weather, such as atmospheric stability, are not represented.
This data is based on Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) projections from the ESCI climate change project. It represents the multi-model mean i.e. there are projections from multiple climate models and this shows the average across them all.
See what the modelling says to understand more about these projections.
To learn more about the methodology behind FFDI read:
Dowdy, A. J. (2018):
Climatological Variability of Fire Weather in Australia.
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.
This data shows us the projected change in average fire weather conditions across Victoria from 1980 to 2100 under an intermediate emissions scenario, and a very high emissions scenario. The fire weather shown here is a function of temperature, rainfall, humidity and wind speed. We use a fire year rather than a calendar year e.g. the 2020 fire year runs from July 2019 to June 2020.
Hover over the map and graphs to get more info.