As noted on the Fuel page, fuel is the most complex of all the drivers of fire and is influenced by the climate and many other factors. The measure we use here is a fuel hazard model that includes the influence of climate (three bioclimatic variables). Therefore, it can be calculated directly from climate models. It is important to note that potential future changes in other drivers of fuel, such as vegetation and soil, are not represented.
The data shown here is based on a fuel hazard model that includes multiple inputs. The only inputs for which we have assessed climate change impacts are three bioclimatic variables (mean annual temperature, maximum temperature of the warmest month and precipitation of the warmest quarter), based on projections from the ESCI climate change project. No changes in soil or vegetation were represented. It represents the multi-model mean i.e. there are projections from multiple climate models and this shows the average across them all.
See what the modelling says to understand more about these projections.
To learn more about the methodology behind this model read:
McColl-Gausden, S.C. et al. (2019):
Climate and edaphic gradients predict variation in wildland fuel hazard in south-eastern Australia.
Ecography.
This data shows us the projected change in average fuel hazard across Victoria from 1980 to 2100. The fuel hazard shown here is a complex function of multiple climate variables, bulk soil density and time since fire. Fuel hazard scores are restricted to areas of native vegetation that have at least one mapped fire on record. We use 30-year time bands.
The projections do not account for annual changes in future fire activity. Instead, we use three long-term indicative scenarios: Long Unburnt (very little fire), Recently Burnt (frequent fire), Average Fire History (historically average fire).
The outlook for fuel hazard under climate change is complex: