As noted on the Dryness page, there are many different ways of measuring the fuel moisture of dead and live plant material. The measure we use here, Vapour Pressure Deficit (VPD), can be calculated directly from climate models. It is important to note that potential future changes in other drivers of fuel moisture, such as plant physiology, are not represented.
This data is basd on Vapour Pressure Deficit (VPD) projections from the ESCI climate change project. It represents the multi-model mean i.e. there are projections from multiple climate models and this shows the average across them all.
See what the modelling says to understand more about these projections.
To learn more about dryness as a driver of fire read: Major fires an increasing risk as the air gets thirstier, research shows
This data shows us the projected change in average dryness conditions across Victoria from 1980 to 2100 under an intermediate emissions scenario, and a very high emissions scenario. The dryness shown here is a function of temperature and humidity. We use a fire year rather than a calendar year e.g. the 2020 fire year runs from July 2019 to June 2020.
Hover over the map and graphs to get more info.